SpaceX is expected to be the biggest IPO in history. Paul Dravis of Future Perfect Machine will help explain what this means and why people think SpaceX is worth over $1.5 trillion. This video is sponsored by Venice.ai. Get a free trial, go to https://venice.ai/moondog or use code MOONDOG to get 20% off a Pro Plan. Enjoy uncensored and private A.I. with Venice.
Read my notes: https://moondogindustries.com/tmi-260527-spacex-ipoh-my/
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BRAND CONTEST CLUE
This American car company is the largest maker of electric-powered vehicles, and also a major manufacturer of home battery power, solar panels, and now robots.
DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE
SPACEX
Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) is an Texas based aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk; with the goal of starting a human colony on Mars. Today it’s the most successful private space-launch company and the first to successfully and repeatedly launch and land fully-reusable booster rockets.
They have been contracted by NASA to service the ISS and to provide launch and hardware for NASA’s moon landing missions. In addition to rockets, SpaceX builds and operates the Starlink space-based internet service.
SpaceX filed an S1 and is expected to IPO sometime in June 2026 with an estimated value of over 1.75T.
SPECIAL GUEST
Paul Dravis is a former Managing Director of Bank of America, a former VP at JPMorganChase, and the founder of Future Perfect Machine, a technology analysis and consulting company focused on emerging technologies.
SpaceX key financials
Connectivity (Starlink): $11.4 billion revenue and $4.4 billion in profit in 2025 (30% operating margin).
Space (Launch/Manufacturing): $4.1 billion in revenue with an operating loss of $657 millino in 2025.
AI & Compute: $3.2 billion in revenue but $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025
Comparing SpaceX to IPOs from Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Tesla (from Venice.ai)
Based on my research, SpaceX filed its S-1 prospectus in May 2026. Here’s the comprehensive comparison:
SpaceX S-1 Filing (2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| IPO Target Valuation | $1.75 trillion |
| 2024 Revenue | $14.1 billion |
| 2025 Revenue | $18.7 billion (33% growth) |
| 2024 Net Income | $791 million profit |
| 2025 Net Income | $4.94 billion loss |
| Q1 2026 Net Loss | $4.28 billion |
| Space Segment Revenue (2025) | $4.1 billion |
| Starlink Revenue (2025) | $11.4 billion (61% of total) |
| Total Addressable Market | $28.5 trillion |
Key Insight: SpaceX swung from profitability in 2024 to massive losses in 2025 due to the xAI merger and heavy AI investments. The company is going public while burning billions quarterly.
IPO Comparison: Revenue vs Expenses
| Company | IPO Year | Revenue at IPO | Profitability at IPO | IPO Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 1997 | ~$15.7M (1996) | Operating Loss | $438M |
| Google/Alphabet | 2004 | ~$3.2B (2004) / $961M (2003) | Profitable ($143M H1 2004) | $23B → $1.7B |
| Tesla | 2010 | ~$112M (2009) | Net Loss | $1.7B |
| Meta | 2012 | $3.7B (2011) | $1B Profit (27% margin) | $104B |
| SpaceX | 2026 | $18.7B (2025) | $4.94B Loss | $1.75T |
Current Market Value & Gains Since IPO
| Company | IPO Valuation | Current Market Cap (May 2026) | Total Return | IPO Price | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $438M | $2.86 trillion | ~652,000% | $18 | ~$268 |
| Alphabet | $23B | $2.8 trillion | ~12,000% | $85 | ~$383 |
| Tesla | $1.7B | $1.6 trillion | ~94,000% | $17 | ~$432 |
| Meta | $104B | $1.55 trillion | ~1,400% | $38 | ~$605 |
| SpaceX | $1.75T (target) | N/A (pre-IPO) | N/A | TBD | TBD |
Key Observations
SpaceX is unprecedented in scale:
- Revenue ($18.7B) is 5x higher than Meta’s at IPO
- Valuation target ($1.75T) is 17x higher than Meta’s IPO valuation
- Yet it’s losing $5 billion annually vs. Meta’s $1B profit at IPO
Historical Pattern:
- Amazon & Tesla: IPO’d unprofitable with minimal revenue → Massive long-term gains (65,000% and 94,000%)
- Google: IPO’d profitable with strong growth → Solid gains (12,000%)
- Meta: IPO’d highly profitable with established business → Moderate gains (1,400%)
SpaceX Risk Profile: SpaceX combines the massive scale of a mature company with the losses of a growth startup. Its $4.9B annual burn rate and $1.75T valuation make it the most expensive unprofitable IPO in history.
https://www.spacex.com/content/starship-flight-tests/flight-11
BRAND CONTEST CLUE
This car company was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. It is named is a tribute to the inventor and electrical engineer Nikola Tesla. In February 2004, Elon Musk led a group of investors and was named the company’s chairman. Under his leadership, this company went public and has a Market Cap of over $1T .
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MAY CONTEST FINAL DAYS
Aquilifer 6-24×50 or a Nitecore EDC17